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US 10 Year Bond MINUS US 2 Year Bond Spread

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Pro Tip

This is a FAR leading indicator!!

Why is the 10-year US Bond to 2-year US Bond spread important?

A negativeΒ 10-year and two-year U.S. Treasury bondsΒ yield spread has historically been viewed as a precursor to a recessionary period. A negative 10-2 spread has predicted every recession from 1955 to 2018, but has occurred 6-24 months before the recession occurring, and is thus seen as a far-leading indicator.

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