Unwinding the 10-2 ALWAYS seems to bite us in the 6!
Unwinding The 10-2 Usually Bites You On Your 6!
History proves to us that it is only been a matter of time!
A forward leading indicator such as the unwinding of the 10/2 yield curve has been a months ahead of predicting recessions after the yield curves first turn back up towards the 0% level:
1) 13 months (Dec 1978 – Jan 1980)
2) 9 months (Nov 1980 – July 1981)
3) 16 months (Mar 1989 – Jul 1990)
4) 12 months (Mar 2000 – Mar 2001)
5) 22 months (Feb 2006 – Dec 2007)
6) 6 months (Aug 2019 – Mar 2020)
7) 4 months so far (Mar 2023 was the first turn up)
By looking at the two charts above, we can see a probable window for a recession to start.
Do you see a window of time perhaps some time between Sept 2023 – Jan 2025 as a high probability?
As the saying goes, there are no certainties, only probabilities.
To further your research, you can find more on the:
1. 10/2 “yield curve” here, https://www.primeinvestments.com/?s=yield+curve
2. “Unemployment” here, https://www.primeinvestments.com/?s=unemployment
