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The Yield Curve Valuation Indicator

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The Yield Curve Model: Very High Risk

Chart shows spread between 10-year and 3-mo Treasury debt relative to # of standard deviations from historical norm.

Recession periods are shaded.

Summary:When short term (3-month) Treasury yields are higher than long term (10-year) yields, it is a bearish signal that is almost always followed by economic recession.

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